RBI policy outlook: Morgan Stanley sees two 25 bps cuts by December; inflation forecast slashed to 2.4% for FY26
Morgan Stanley projects the RBI to cut policy rates by 25 bps each in October and December, potentially bringing the terminal rate to 5%. This easing cycle is driven by sustained disinflation, with CPI inflation expected to average 2.4% in FY26, significantly below the RBI's 4% target. Food price softness and easing input costs support this benign inflation trend.
Morgan Stanley projects the RBI to cut policy rates by 25 bps each in October and December, potentially bringing the terminal rate to 5%. This easing cycle is driven by sustained disinflation, with CPI inflation expected to average 2.4% in FY26, significantly below the RBI's 4% target. Food price softness and easing input costs support this benign inflation trend.
